Ohio's Demographics Help Santorum

 



To remain a plausible alternative to Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential primaries, Rick Santorum needs a win next Tuesday in Ohio, where he is not only up in the polls but could benefit from small but potentially significant demographic advantages.


Ohio and Michigan, where Mr. Santorum lost to Mr. Romney this Tuesday by three percentage points, are Rust Belt neighbors, but a look at the demographics of voters in the 2008 Republican primaries points to differences in the electorate in the two states.
GOP voters who cast ballots in Ohio were less affluent, less educated and more likely to live in rural areas and to be evangelical Christians than GOP voters in Michigan, according to 2008 primary exit polls from CNN.com. Those are all demographic groups where former Pennsylvania Sen. Santorum soundly beat former Massachusetts Gov. Romney in Michigan.


While the differences were slight and some other factors weigh in Mr. Romney's favor in what's expected to be a very close race, they could help Mr. Santorum keep his challenge to Mr. Romney on track.
"Ohio is a little more downscale, and that will marginally hurt Romney," said Michael Barone, the co-author of The Almanac of American Politics and a fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.
Mr. Santorum beat Mr. Romney by 16 percentage points in Michigan among evangelical voters. In Ohio in 2008, the share of voters who identified themselves as evangelical was five points greater than in Michigan.